Russian President Vladimir Putin will eventually be removed from power, according to a former foreign minister of Ukraine.
Volodymyr Ohryzko spoke about the growing signs that rifts are beginning to emerge within the Kremlin as Putin’s war against Ukraine falters.
In an interview with Ukraine’s Radio NV, the diplomat responded to an assessment by UCLA political science professor Daniel Treisman that there will eventually be comprehensive meltdown of Putin’s regime. Multiple challenges are overwhelming its capacity to react, and dysfunction drains confidence in the Russian president’s leadership.
According to Treisman, Putin’s regime is now more vulnerable than ever to a particular threat: a paralyzing meltdown as accumulating crises swamp the Kremlin’s decision-making capacity.
Putin is facing a number of problems as his war drags on, including battlefield reversals, elite conflicts, economic failures, shrinking budget revenues, unrest over mobilization, and labor protests, said Treisman. He added that this list will only increase, and as the burden grows, so does the danger of loss of control.
Ohryzko, Ukraine’s foreign minister from December 2007 to March 2009, agreed with Treisman.
“The trends for Putin are very negative. We cannot now predict when the regime will collapse, but it will happen. And it will fall apart due to many circumstances,” he said.
Ohryzko spoke of the uncertainty of the war, which began after Putin launched a full-scale invasion against Ukraine on February 24.
“He already cannot cope with this management, because the situation is beginning to become uncertain for him,” Ohryzko said. “We see what is happening in the regions.”
The official added that Russian “elites” are beginning to understand that “the center is becoming weaker and weaker.”
“This is a much greater threat to Putin than all the potential, possible dissatisfaction [of society], which will not actually occur,” said Ohryzko. “There is a threat to Putin’s regime from within—not in the form of some kind of rebellion against the things that are happening, but because of ‘wounded self-love.'”
“Putin will be removed,” added Ohryzko.
A Russian official who faces conscription under the leader’s partial mobilization decree previously told Newsweek that he believes Putin’s reign is now “closer to the end.”
Dmitry Baltrukov, 43, a municipal deputy for Smolninskoye in St. Petersburg, appealed to the country’s parliament in September to remove Putin from power on the charge of high treason over the Ukraine war. He said he believes the Russian leader is “definitely closer to the end of his power” since announcing a partial mobilization of the population.
Baltrukov said he sees “a clear trend” toward a decrease in support among Russians for the war Putin launched against Ukraine on February 24.
Russia “has no chance of winning” the Ukraine war, Baltrukov said, adding: “There is no Russian leadership. For them, this is the end of their power.”
Military setbacks in the war for Russia have also sparked rare displays of dissent among Putin’s top allies, including Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, and Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Russian mercenary outfit, the Wagner Group. Ukrainian intelligence has alluded to a possible coup within his military.
Newsweek reached out to Russia’s foreign ministry for comment. (Newsweek)