Vietnamese officials are hopefully anticipating an unannounced visit to Hanoi by Russian President Vladimir Putin, possibly as early as next week on his way to Beijing for meetings with Chinese leaders.
Experts say such a visit would allow the Russian leader to show that Western efforts to isolate his government over its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine have failed, while furthering Hanoi’s efforts to navigate a middle ground between the United States and China.
Vietnam could also be expected to seek an arms deal with its historical ally as its Soviet-era military equipment ages beyond its service life.
During a phone call on March 26, the leader of the ruling Communist Party of Vietnam — General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong — extended an invitation to Putin to visit Hanoi. According to state media outlet Vietnam News Agency, “President Putin happily accepted the invitation and agreed for the two sides to arrange [the visit] at a suitable time.”
Ian Storey, fellow at Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, told VOA that the visit could take place this month, when Putin is expected to travel to Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Putin confirmed at an April 25 congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs that he would visit Beijing sometime in May. He did not provide dates, but Bloomberg quoted unidentified sources saying it would take place on May 15 and 16.
“Putin might use this opportunity to visit Russia’s three closest partners in Asia: China, Vietnam and North Korea,” Storey wrote in an email on April 10. “Putin would use this visit to signal to the world that his government’s ‘Turn to the East’ policy remains on track and that the West has failed to isolate Russia.”
Maintaining a close connection to Moscow is a priority for the Vietnamese leadership as they attempt to balance between the world’s two leading powers, said Alexander Vuving, a professor at Honolulu’s Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies.
“Vietnam has to balance its relationship between China and the United States, and it’s like it’s caught between a rock and a hard place,” he told VOA during a Zoom call on April 13.
Vuving said that Beijing is a threat to neighboring Vietnam’s territorial integrity not only as it encroaches into the South China Sea but also as its power grows regionally. While the U.S. is the obvious counterbalance, Washington is seen as a threat to the country’s regime by the ruling Communist Party.
“Russia offers a very good middle ground for Vietnam,” Vuving said. Moscow shares “regime affinity and their leaders still call each other comrades.” Furthermore, Russian enterprises are key partners to Vietnam’s oil and gas ventures in the South China Sea, he said.
Storey said a meeting would be particularly significant after Hanoi upgraded ties with Washington in September 2023 and Xi visited Hanoi in December. (VOA)
