Revenue from crude oil sales earned Nigeria $11 billion in the first five months of 2023.
This is according to the data obtained from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Revenue Factsheet released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
According to the factsheet, Nigeria’s revenue from crude oil sales for the same period in 2024 is projected to exceed the earnings in 2023 by increasing to about $29 billion. This it is hoped will give the nation’s foreign reserve and the foreign exchange market a boost. The data linked the forecast to a projected increase in global crude oil prices in 2024.
The EIA estimated that OPEC members earned about $888 billion in net oil export revenue in 2022.
The dataset also showed that OPEC’s 2022 net revenue rose nearly 43 per cent compared with the previous year, when OPEC net oil export revenue totaled an estimated $622 billion.
The increase in net export revenue in 2022 was mostly attributable to higher crude oil prices, and to a lesser degree to higher petroleum liquids production. OPEC total oil output rose to nearly 34.2 million barrels per day (b/d), increasing 2.5 million b/d year-on-year.
The latest data comes amid the recent decision by some members of OPEC+, which includes OPEC and allies such as Russia, to voluntarily cut production in April due to the uncertain economic outlook.
Six OPEC members further agreed in May, to reduce production output by a further 1.04 million BPD, a decision which continued through June. The EIA, said the revenue figures for January to May 2023 indicates a huge drop from the $34 billion earned in H1, in 2022.
Other oil-exploring countries like Angola, which is Nigeria’s closest rival in Africa earned about $12 billion from oil export during the same period, while the highest oil producer in OPEC, Saudi Arabia, generated $97 billion within the same period. The EIA report also reveals that the entire OPEC members earned a combined $888 billion in net oil export revenue in 2022.
According to the fact sheet, the net oil export revenue of the top five OPEC countries in 2023 and 2024 will remain the same as the income in 2022 and 2021 although there may be slight alterations in the exact figures. The revenue earned by the OPEC countries increased by around 43 per cent when compared with earnings in 2022. “The increase in net export revenue in 2022 is mostly attributable to higher crude oil prices, and to a lesser degree to higher petroleum liquids production,” the EIA said.
In 2022, Iran and Venezuela, which are OPEC members that are not subject to the OPEC+ production targets, also increased their total liquids production in 2022. Using standard oil price benchmarks, this resulted in estimated net export revenues rising by $15 billion in Iran and $2 billion in Venezuela year over year. However, these estimates do not take into account possible changes to discounts that Iran and Venezuela offered to their buyers.
Saudi Arabia produces the most crude oil among OPEC members, and it accounted for the largest share of OPEC total revenue in 2022.
“We estimate that Saudi Arabia’s net export revenue was $311 billion, which accounted for about 35 per cent of all OPEC oil revenue in 2022,” it said.
OPEC’s Reference Basket price increased by 47 pages in 2022 compared with 2021
“We forecast that OPEC net oil revenue will fall to $656 billion in 2023. This decrease is attributable to lower OPEC production as a result of the extension of the OPEC+ agreement, along with a decrease in crude oil prices. We expect OPEC total oil liquids production to decrease to 33.5 million b/d in 2023, while the forecast Brent spot price will fall from $101/b in 2022 to $80/b.
On a per capita basis, OPEC net oil export revenue rose from $1,205 in 2021 to $1,685 in 2022. We forecast that 2023 per capita revenue will fall to $1,219, adjusted for inflation.
In tandem with a forecast increase in OPEC output in 2024, based on the June 2023 STEO, we expect that OPEC net export revenue will rise to $682 billion (real $). We forecast that global crude oil prices will increase in 2024, reflecting global oil inventories that will decrease in each of the next five quarters.
Following the OPEC+ announcement on June 4 to extend crude oil production cuts through 2024, we forecast global oil inventories to fall slightly in each of the next five quarters. We expect these draws will put some upward pressure on crude oil prices. (Leadership)